Introduction
“The potential for consequences where something of value is at stake and where the outcome is uncertain, recognising the diversity of values. Risk is often represented as a probability of occurrence of hazardous events or trends multiplied by the impacts of these events or trends occur. Risk results from the interaction of vulnerability, exposure, and hazard.”
Establishing a systematic process of national-level risk assessment
Collecting scientific evidence
Criteria | Inclusion | Exclusion |
---|---|---|
Date of publication | Articles published between Jan 2014–May 2019 | Articles published prior to Jan 2014 |
Main theme of publication | Articles focusing on analysing or projecting climate change impacts on Korea (past/present/future) Articles involving contents about climate change, climate change scenario, climate change impacts, RCP, GCM, etc. | Articles not involving contents about climate change, climate change scenario, climate change impact, RCP, GCM, etc., which are not related to climate change risks |
Research range | Articles focusing on Korea (national and local areas) | Articles focusing on other countries and their local areas |
Availability of article | Articles that are available in KISS and Dbpia | Articles that are not available in KISS and DBpia |
Type of article | Only peer-reviewed and published article | Grey literature such as conference proceedings or reports for institutes |
Language of publication | Articles published in Korean or English | Articles published in languages other than Korean or English |
Criteria | Description |
---|---|
Sector | Research sector (Health, Land, Coast, Agriculture, Water, Energy, Forest, Industry, Ecosystem, Ocean, Fisheries, etc.) |
Spatial range | Research spatial range (national, provincial, local) |
Data time scale | Time scale of data that used in the research |
Research time scale | Time scale of the research subject (past, present, future) |
Risk factors (IPCC 2014) | Hazard—The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend or physical impact that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems, and environmental resources. In this report, the term hazard usually refers to climate-related physical events or trends or their physical impacts Exposure—The presence of people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems, environmental functions, services, and resources, infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected Vulnerability—The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. Vulnerability encompasses a variety of concepts and elements including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt. See also Contextual vulnerability and Outcome vulnerability |
Research result | Research result summary |
Risk description | Risk description with risk factors in the research |
Making lists of preliminary risks
Making lists of risks and prioritising
Scale | Description | |
---|---|---|
The severity of the risk consequences | High | Large scale damage that is repeated every year (national-level, over 10 billion won) |
Medium | Medium-scale damage that is repeated every year (national or local level, over 1 billion won) | |
Low | Small scale damage that is repeated every year (the damage amount is small compared to the number of damages) | |
The probability of the risk occurrence | High | Every year repeatedly |
Medium | Once in 2 or 3 years | |
Low | Once in over 5 years |
Assessment | Description |
---|---|
Institutional capacity assessment | Do you think the national legislations and institutions for this risk has been properly developed? |
Do you think there are enough national countermeasures (policy programmes) to address this risk? | |
Actor capability assessment | How much do you think the actors’ (related organisations and main respondents) adaptative capacity is? |
Infrastructure capacity assessment | Do you think the social infrastructures for this risk are working sufficiently and effectively? |
Technical capability assessment | What level do you think the basic research (projection, information, technology development, etc.) is? |
Categorising the risks
Result: identifying national-level climate change risk of Korea
Preliminary climate change risks of Korea
No. | Hazard | Exposure | Impact (hazard and exposure) | Potential risk |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Temperature increase, precipitation reduction | Patients | Allergic disease increase | Allergic disease increase due to temperature increase |
2 | Temperature increase, high temperature | Patients | Malaria disease increase | Malaria disease increase due to temperature increase |
3 | Temperature increase, high temperature | Patients | Food poisoning increase | Food poisoning increase due to temperature increase |
4 | Temperature increase, humidity increase | Patients | Bacterial pathogen increase | Bacterial pathogen increase due to temperature and humidity increase |
5 | Heat wave | The aged | Respirator and cardiovascular system patients increase, Medical cost increase | Respirator and cardiovascular system patients increase due to heat wave |
6 | Heat wave | Patients | Fatality increase | Fatality increase due to heat wave |
7 | Ozone concentration increase, temperature increase, precipitation increase | Patients | Early fatality increase due to air pollution | Early fatality increase due to air pollution caused by temperature, ozone concentration increase |
8 | Temperature increase, high temperature | Patients | Renal colic increase | Renal colic increase due to temperature increase |
9 | Temperature increase, CO2 concentration increase | Patients | Asthmatic patient increase | Asthmatic patient increase due to temperature and CO2 concentration increase |
10 | Precipitation reduction | Human | Respiratory disease and skin disease increase | Respiratory disease and skin disease increase due to dry air |
Climate change risks in Korea
Risk categorisation
Sector | Existing | New | Fundamental research | New and fundamental research |
---|---|---|---|---|
Health | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
Land | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
Agriculture | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Water | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
Forest | 2 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
Ecosystem | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
Industry/energy | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Ocean/fishery/coast | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |