The impact of low-carbon city pilot policy on urban energy transition: an analysis of multiple mediating effects based on “government–enterprise–resident”

The global energy transition is crucial for all nations due to increasing concerns about energy security and climate change. The low-carbon city pilot (LCCP) policy is an essential project in the energy transition process, but its impact on urban energy transition (ET) and the underlying mechanisms remains unclear. To address this, we use a multi-temporal difference-in-difference (DID) model, analyzing panel data from 277 Chinese cities spanning 2006–2020, to examine the effects of the LCCP policy on urban energy transition. The findings show that the LCCP policy greatly influences urban energy transition, and the findings can withstand a number of robustness tests, particularly the decomposed effects of staggered DID. Moreover, we construct a multiple mediation effect model to identify three pathways through which the policy facilitates energy transition: “LCCP → Government Intervention → ET,” “LCCP → Enterprise Technology Innovation → ET,” and “LCCP → Residents’ Green Consumption Awareness Enhancement → ET.” Heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that first- and second-tier cities, resource-based cities, and eastern cities experience more substantial impacts. Our findings hold vital implications for promoting low-carbon cities and achieving sustainable energy systems.